I believe the impact of the US recession on Brazil will be less than in the past. Globalization and BRICs should lessen the negative effects.

The question is how will this affect digital in Brazil?

I think there will be 2 scenarios: 1) conservative marketers and 2) innovative marketers.

“Conservative marketers” will consolidate/reduce their marketing budgets and rely on traditional advertising and cut digital. The current eco-system supports this i.e. BVs. Also, accountability may not be something viewed as important right now.

“Innovative marketers” will realize that they will need to consider other metrics besides brand awareness such as brand consideration, purchase consideration and purchase intent. They will start to integrate the consumer brand journey. Digital, unlike traditional advertising, moves these metrics in significant ways. For example, an immersive digital brand experience that can be a site or a service moves brand consideration all the way until purchase intent. The innovative marketers during a recession will take the opportunity of building up their digital marketing capabilities by first getting their foundation right. There are still many marketers who do not have their digital marketing basics right. (It’s not just about using the internet as another media channel where you “push” out messages.) These marketers will think about consumer segmentation, metrics, content strategies, trusted networks, to participate in the conversation in order to make their marketing $$$ work harder and more accountable.

I think what you may see drop in terms of digital investment in Brazil is what I call “bling bling” - e.g. eye candy or tactical digital actions such as banners. If we can educate our market and especially our clients about why they need to invest in digital marketing “PLATFORMS”, this may reduce the impact of the recession on digital in Brazil. Also, the issue of “accountability” for marketers may motivate them to increase their digital investments.

Mas do ponto de vista economico aqui ainda é uma jazida de ouro com muito pepita brilhando e eles sabem disso. Com a taxa de juros explodindo, ROI pra qualquer coisa pequena se transforma em grande, em segundos.
Pode ate ser que chegue aqui, mas em proporções menores.

=^D